Built from deals, not from market share.
A 60-month, unit-level projection: HQ licenses signed × units per system × franchisee adoption, plus direct groups × locations per group, plus Core self-serve, each net of its own churn. Rebuilt after a three-person red team cut the first version's year-5 revenue by more than half.
Projection. Every figure on this page is a forward-looking estimate from stated assumptions, not a result. House Track has no customers, revenue, partners, pilots or letters of intent. Churn, CAC, adoption and willingness to pay are untested.
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Sensitivities
One change at a time against the base case. Pick the measure; hover a bar for detail.
The two largest single risks to capital are IP insurance pricing (+$250k of peak need at 2x) and churn. Both carry hard gates in the plan.
Unit economics
Per unit per month at the month-60 cost structure. Each bar is the net price, split into what it pays for.
Key assumptions
- HQ: ~120 units per system; franchisee adoption 30% in 12 months, +10% next 12, then 0.3% of units a month; first HQ signature month 11.
- Direct groups: 14 locations average, deployed 40/30/30 over 3 months; 0.5%/month same-group expansion.
- Core: launches month 6; 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 gross adds a month in years 1–5.
- Churn (monthly): HQ 1.0%, direct groups 1.25%, franchise locations 1.75%, Core 3.0%.
- COGS: hosting/generation $4.50/location, support $2.50, device mgmt $4 at 30% attach from month 13, curation $100/catalog, engine royalty 8%, payments 3%, screening + IP insurance $25k–110k/yr.
- Team: 1 W-2 in year 1 rising to 6 by year 5, hires triggered by volume. Founder unpaid until three straight EBITDA-positive months.
Valuation method
3.0–3.5x trailing-twelve-month recurring revenue at net prices: no Signature Sound, no hardware, no usage add-ons. Cross-checked at 6–8x a buyer's normalized harvest-mode EBITDA. 4x and above is upside only.
| Comparable | Multiple |
|---|---|
| SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue (SEG) | 4.0–4.2x |
| Small deals, $0–5M ARR (Aventis) | ~3.3x |
| Stingray–TuneIn, adj. EBITDA (GlobeNewswire) | 5.8x |
| Mood Media–Muzak, 2011 (reported) | $345M, n/a |
Terms for most recent category deals were not disclosed, so comparable data is thin.
What the red team changed
| Revision 1 | Revision 2 (current) |
|---|